{"id":80,"date":"2016-01-22T15:37:35","date_gmt":"2016-01-22T14:37:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/294241287362962\/posts\/876853785768373"},"modified":"2020-12-31T11:17:37","modified_gmt":"2020-12-31T10:17:37","slug":"3-reasons-to-invest-in-januarys-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ez-balance.com\/blog\/index.php\/2016\/01\/22\/3-reasons-to-invest-in-januarys-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Reasons To Invest In January&#8217;s Bear Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/specials-images.forbesimg.com\/imageserve\/38517458\/640x434.jpg?fit=scale\" width=\"301\" height=\"204\" \/>I left for Asia on January 4 \u2014 to lead a <a href=\"http:\/\/educationabroad.babson.edu\/index.cfm?FuseAction=Programs.ViewProgram&amp;Program_ID=10076\">Babson College MBA course on startups in Hong Kong and Singapore<\/a> \u2013\u00a0and returned on the 15th to a \u201cbear market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Is this an opportunity to invest or a signal to get out before things get much worse? I think buying is a better bet.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Before getting into that, let\u2019s examine the evidence of a bear market and the unpersuasive reasons that aspire to explain why stocks have fallen.<\/p>\n<p class=\"story-body-text story-content\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">We are in a bear market because the CEO of the world\u2019s largest money manager said so \u2013\u00a0according to Laurence D. Fink, \u201cTechnically we are in a bear market. There is just a broad reassessment of risk right now,\u201d reported the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/01\/16\/business\/dealbook\/stock-markets-wall-street-global-selloff.html?ref=business\"><em>New York Times<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"story-body-text story-content\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Having fallen 23%, the Russell 2,000 \u2014 a small cap stock\u00a0index \u2014 has beaten the official definition of a bear market \u2014 stocks falling 20% from their high. But the S&amp;P 500 is not there yet, having dropped 12% from its July 2015\u00a0high.<\/p>\n<div id=\"article-0-inread\" class=\"inread ng-isolate-scope inread-active\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The most popular explanations for\u00a0January\u2019s stock market plunge make me think that reporters are confusing coincidence with causation. That is, just because two events occur at the same time (e.g., coincidence), it does not mean that one has caused the other (causation).<\/div>\n<p class=\"story-body-text story-content\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Here are three of the most common explanations offered for why stocks crashed and why I think they are unpersuasive:<\/p>\n<p class=\"story-body-text story-content\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><!--more--><\/p>\n<h5><strong>Oil price plunge. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">18 months ago, oil traded at $100 a barrel \u2014 now it\u2019s below $30. This does not explain why stocks\u00a0plunged in January. After all, oil\u00a0was at $35\u00a0at the end of 2015. Could the loss of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/markets\/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=1y\">$5 more per barrel <\/a>explain\u00a0the S&amp;P\u2019s 10% loss since then?<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To be sure, the part of the economy dependent on oil is hurting \u2014 but that represents\u00a0a mere 2.5% of U.S. GDP, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/wonk\/wp\/2013\/04\/23\/the-oil-and-gas-boom-has-had-a-surprisingly-small-impact-on-the-u-s-economy\/\"><em>Capital Economics<\/em><\/a>. And for every\u00a0penny drop in the price of gasoline, $1 billion is supposed to be added to GDP, according to <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2014\/12\/10\/investing\/oil-prices-akin-to-tax-cut\/\">Amherst Pierpont<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If that\u2019s right,\u00a0the\u00a040 cents a gallon drop in gas prices in the last year, according to the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/forecasts\/steo\/\"><em>EIA<\/em><\/a>, should add $40 billion to GDP \u2013\u00a0mostly offsetting the economic damage of lower prices\u00a0to oil and gas suppliers.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>China implosion. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It\u2019s true that the Shanghai index has fallen more than 20% from its December high. U.S. stocks have behaved as if the two market were inter-changeable. But this stock market behavior suggests that investors believe that\u00a0the two economies \u2014 whose prospects those markets are supposed to predict \u2014 are in exactly the same condition.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">About 7% of U.S.\u00a0exports\u00a0go to China, according to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realclearmarkets.com\/docs\/2015\/08\/US%20Exposure%20to%20China%20_%20Aug%202015.pdf\">Wells Fargo Securities<\/a>,\u00a0which is officially <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/r-chinese-gdp-to-worry-central-banks-at-home-and-abroad-2016-1\">forecast to grow at 6.5%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To be sure, that official statistic is too high. But is China really imploding? And if it does, that 7% represents a mere 0.9% \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commerce.gov\/news\/press-releases\/2015\/02\/us-exports-hit-new-annual-record-reaching-235-trillion-2014\">I estimate\u00a02015 U.S. exports to China totaled $164 billion <\/a>\u2013 of the U.S.\u2019s 2015 GDP of about $18 trillion, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/weo\/2015\/01\/weodata\/weorept.aspx?pr.x=33&amp;pr.y=7&amp;sy=2014&amp;ey=2015&amp;scsm=1&amp;ssd=1&amp;sort=country&amp;ds=.&amp;br=1&amp;c=111&amp;s=NGDPD%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPGDP%2CPPPPC&amp;grp=0&amp;a=\">according to the IMF<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In short, the two economies are very different and the U.S.\u2019s economy is not as tightly linked to China\u2019s as the hype would suggest.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Economic collapse.\u00a0<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The U.S. economy is\u00a0expected to grow 2.5% in 2016 according to a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/01\/16\/business\/dealbook\/stock-markets-wall-street-global-selloff.html?ref=business\">recent Reuters survey of economists.<\/a>\u00a0About a year ago, economists expected that the U.S. economy would grow at 2.8% in 2016. It does not make sense that such a small drop in the 2016 economic forecast would explain the drop in stocks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If these explanations for the stock plunge\u00a0don\u2019t make sense, maybe markets are offering bargains to investors who are not persuaded by these weak explanations. Here are three reasons stocks should be worth more.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Lower price\/earnings ratio<\/strong>.<\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Stocks have gotten cheaper \u2014 with their P\/E dropping from\u00a0about 22\u00a0in December to 19.8 now. A quick look at the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.multpl.com\/\">Shiller P\/E<\/a> ratio suggests that we are way short of the 65 P\/E that presaged the 2008 economic collapse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In short, there is no way to justify the January sell-off on the notion that stocks here are grossly over-valued.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>Solid earnings growth.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earnings per share are forecast to rise in 2016, according to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.factset.com\/websitefiles\/PDFs\/earningsinsight\/earningsinsight_1.15.16\">Factset<\/a>. Its January 15 report noted that while analysts expect a slight 0.6% decline in first quarter 2016 EPS, it sees a big boost in growth for the subsequent quarters.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Specifically, Factset expects second quarter 2016 earnings to rise 5.1%, third quarter EPS to be up 7%, and fourth quarter EPS to soar 14.7% over 2015\u2032s reported EPS.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>U.S. economy is a safe haven.<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While Europe appears to growing at <a href=\"http:\/\/europa.eu\/rapid\/press-release_IP-15-5996_en.htm\">less than 2%<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 with bouts of\u00a0panic regarding Greek debt and the economic impact of Syrian refugees \u2013\u00a0and China in a state of significant uncertainty, the U.S. economy has been steadily growing and is creating a steady flow of new jobs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">I do not have a compelling explanation for the January plunge in stock prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Could it be \u2014 as a CEO I met in Singapore suggested \u2014 that hedge funds have been dumping U.S. stocks and will get together and decide to buy them after the recent selling has been exhausted?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If so, I believe that they will be able to back up their buying with a reasonable case that with P\/Es lower and earnings expected to grow later in 2016, U.S. stocks look compelling after January\u2019s correction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peter Cohan<\/p>\n<p>(<a href=\"http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2016\/01\/16\/3-reasons-to-invest-in-januarys-bear-market\/\">Source<\/a>: Forbes)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I left for Asia on January 4 \u2014 to lead a Babson College MBA course on startups in Hong Kong and Singapore \u2013\u00a0and returned on the 15th to a \u201cbear market.\u201d Is this an opportunity to invest or a signal to get out before things get much worse? I think buying is a better bet. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"link","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[17],"class_list":["post-80","post","type-post","status-publish","format-link","hentry","category-facebook","tag-en","post_format-post-format-link"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>3 Reasons To Invest In January&#039;s Bear Market - ez-Balance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ez-balance.com\/blog\/index.php\/2016\/01\/22\/3-reasons-to-invest-in-januarys-bear-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"3 Reasons To Invest In January&#039;s Bear Market - ez-Balance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I left for Asia on January 4 \u2014 to lead a Babson College MBA course on startups in Hong Kong and Singapore \u2013\u00a0and returned on the 15th to a \u201cbear market.\u201d Is this an opportunity to invest or a signal to get out before things get much worse? 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I think buying is a better bet. 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